Monday, February 10, 2003
tomorrow's the day: the nominations for the oscars are announced at 830am est. as much as I've been enraptured with oscarwatch this year, I have to predict the nods in the big 6 categories - and to think I used to mock my buddy keith for doing the exact same thing. 'course, I do it with the grammys (I'm an awards show whore), so what can you do? anyway.
best picture: we already know what's going to win, don't we?
+chicago is a lock, and the front-runner to win.
+the hours is a lock, thanks especially to its globe for best drama; no film has ever won that award and not at least been nommed by the oscars.
+the pianist is riding a groundswell of buzz at exactly the right time, plus it's an artistically successful film about the holocaust.
+three films are competing for the final two slots. I may very well be wrong, but I think my big fat greek wedding will get narrowly squeezed out, thus ending the screen actors guild's 100% success rate - since they first started giving an award for best ensemble in 1995, every film they've nommed there has gone on to receive a bp nod. the pianist will break that "curse," bumping wedding.
+gangs of new york will make it in as this year's epic, and because of the love people have for scorcese. plus, if gony is left out, he has no chance of winning best director.
+the lord of the rings: the two towers will slip in to the fifth slot. most thought it even more stunning than the fellowship of the ring, even if it's largely seen as an action movie. but I wouldn't be shocked to see the wedding bump either of the last two.
best director: for once, I think the nominees here will mirror those in bp.
+rob marshall (chicago) - this year's sam mendes? fun fact: marshall and mendes codirected the broadway revival of cabaret a couple years back.
+martin scorcese (gony) - he's a stone lock, even if his film misses out in bp.
+roman polanski (pianist) - widely seen as a master of the form, despite that nasty sex-with-a-13-year-old-in-nicholson's-hot-tub 25-odd years ago. but will the l.a. district attorney's office let him come back for the ceremony?
+stephen daldry (hours) - second-time nominee - he was up for billy elliot a few years back. hours is seen as the epitome of an actors' picture, and you've gotta have a great director to get those great performances and fit them all together.
+peter jackson (two towers) - even those who don't love the lotr films (myself included) admire his achievement.
+possible spoilers: spike jonze for adaptation (bold, impressive filmmaking like no one else), todd haynes for far from heaven (this year's david lynch? I think he's more soderburgh).
best actor: four locks, and a fight to the finish for the fifth slot.
+jack nicholson, about schmidt. that's all you have to say: just jack. it will be stunning if he doesn't take home his fourth oscar (and third lead) for what many consider to be the performance of his career, myself included.
+daniel day-lewis, gangs of new york. widely considered as a great performance in a film a lot of people didn't much like.
+adrien brody, pianist. I think if the buzz breaks just the right way, brody's career-altering perf has the stuff to be the dark horse and pull the massive upset. but like eminem over bruce at the grammys, I don't think it'll happen.
+richard gere, chicago. this will be gere's first nod ever at the oscars. the sag nod put him over the top, as will the film's mondo coattails. and his tap dance. a month ago, I had him on the outside looking in, but his momentum is serious.
+nicholas cage, adaptation. it's a great perf, it's a dual role (an academy fave), it involved weight gain (another academy fave). however, this is a tight race for this slot. michael caine (the quiet american) has been very quiet, and his film has been barely seen - but his work is widely held to be phenomenal; don't rule him out. everyone's seen about a boy's hugh grant, and everyone loves him. the film has a lot of supporters, too - but will gere's nod bump hugh's comic perf?
best actress: the two towers.
+nicole kidman, the hours. she's nicole. everyone loves her. she's an amazing actress. and she wore a prosthetic nose.
+julianne moore, far from heaven. I'm befuddled as to why the buzz on this masterpiece of a film has died to nearly-nonexistent, but fortunately, no one's forgotten (nor will they) moore's perf. I still think she'll take the sag for this - and then, the oscar (much as halle berry did last year over already-anointed sissy spacek). hallelujah!
+renee zellweger, chicago. like nicole, this will be her second consecutive nod here. deserving? yes. chance to win? none.
+meryl streep, the hours. because she's meryl. she'll be just as happy with a supporting trophy (see below).
+salma hayek, frida. very admired for making and giving such a fine perf in a film which left many wanting. diane lane (in unfaithful) is this year's naomi watts - a couple of big crix awards, but not enough steam to go the distance.
best supporting actor: getting tired of these races continually coming down to the fifth slot yet?
+chris cooper, adaptation. it's his. yeah, he's good. but this should go to
+dennis quaid, far from heaven. his perf reveals new depths in his acting, which appears to be improving with age, like a good wine. so much in this perf was understated with such beauty that I'll be elated beyond words if he wins. but he won't.
+ed harris, the hours. oscar fave, plays dying man with aids. need I go on?
+paul newman, the road to perdition. because he's paul newman. as much of a chance to win as I have.
+john c. reilly, chicago. chris walken (catch me if you can) is in too lightweight of a pic. alfred molina (frida) is in too disliked of a pic. and reilly's this year's jim broadbent, supporting in three likely nominees (hours and gony as well). I say "mr. cellophane" puts him over the top, by a hair.
best supporting actress: the chicago effect.
+meryl streep, adaptation. with her nod here, and/or in lead, meryl breaks kate hepburn's record for nominations (currently at 12). she likely wins this, giving adaptation a supporting sweep
+catherine zeta-jones, chicago. I'm still mad that she wasn't nommed for traffic two years ago, but she obviously stole every scene she was in in chicago, and still has a shot - the only one - to upset streep.
+kathy bates, about schmidt. great perf, buzz dying save for nude scene, could be the dark horse, but don't bet on it.
+julianne moore, the hours. the last time two women were double-nommed? '93. ten years later, expect it again.
+queen latifah, chicago. she's been steadily generating great buzz for a truly supporting perf. the sag nod puts her over. would love to see patricia clarkson slide in for far from heaven, but I don't expect it.
you know I'll blog the actual nods tomorrow, right? right.
best picture: we already know what's going to win, don't we?
+chicago is a lock, and the front-runner to win.
+the hours is a lock, thanks especially to its globe for best drama; no film has ever won that award and not at least been nommed by the oscars.
+the pianist is riding a groundswell of buzz at exactly the right time, plus it's an artistically successful film about the holocaust.
+three films are competing for the final two slots. I may very well be wrong, but I think my big fat greek wedding will get narrowly squeezed out, thus ending the screen actors guild's 100% success rate - since they first started giving an award for best ensemble in 1995, every film they've nommed there has gone on to receive a bp nod. the pianist will break that "curse," bumping wedding.
+gangs of new york will make it in as this year's epic, and because of the love people have for scorcese. plus, if gony is left out, he has no chance of winning best director.
+the lord of the rings: the two towers will slip in to the fifth slot. most thought it even more stunning than the fellowship of the ring, even if it's largely seen as an action movie. but I wouldn't be shocked to see the wedding bump either of the last two.
best director: for once, I think the nominees here will mirror those in bp.
+rob marshall (chicago) - this year's sam mendes? fun fact: marshall and mendes codirected the broadway revival of cabaret a couple years back.
+martin scorcese (gony) - he's a stone lock, even if his film misses out in bp.
+roman polanski (pianist) - widely seen as a master of the form, despite that nasty sex-with-a-13-year-old-in-nicholson's-hot-tub 25-odd years ago. but will the l.a. district attorney's office let him come back for the ceremony?
+stephen daldry (hours) - second-time nominee - he was up for billy elliot a few years back. hours is seen as the epitome of an actors' picture, and you've gotta have a great director to get those great performances and fit them all together.
+peter jackson (two towers) - even those who don't love the lotr films (myself included) admire his achievement.
+possible spoilers: spike jonze for adaptation (bold, impressive filmmaking like no one else), todd haynes for far from heaven (this year's david lynch? I think he's more soderburgh).
best actor: four locks, and a fight to the finish for the fifth slot.
+jack nicholson, about schmidt. that's all you have to say: just jack. it will be stunning if he doesn't take home his fourth oscar (and third lead) for what many consider to be the performance of his career, myself included.
+daniel day-lewis, gangs of new york. widely considered as a great performance in a film a lot of people didn't much like.
+adrien brody, pianist. I think if the buzz breaks just the right way, brody's career-altering perf has the stuff to be the dark horse and pull the massive upset. but like eminem over bruce at the grammys, I don't think it'll happen.
+richard gere, chicago. this will be gere's first nod ever at the oscars. the sag nod put him over the top, as will the film's mondo coattails. and his tap dance. a month ago, I had him on the outside looking in, but his momentum is serious.
+nicholas cage, adaptation. it's a great perf, it's a dual role (an academy fave), it involved weight gain (another academy fave). however, this is a tight race for this slot. michael caine (the quiet american) has been very quiet, and his film has been barely seen - but his work is widely held to be phenomenal; don't rule him out. everyone's seen about a boy's hugh grant, and everyone loves him. the film has a lot of supporters, too - but will gere's nod bump hugh's comic perf?
best actress: the two towers.
+nicole kidman, the hours. she's nicole. everyone loves her. she's an amazing actress. and she wore a prosthetic nose.
+julianne moore, far from heaven. I'm befuddled as to why the buzz on this masterpiece of a film has died to nearly-nonexistent, but fortunately, no one's forgotten (nor will they) moore's perf. I still think she'll take the sag for this - and then, the oscar (much as halle berry did last year over already-anointed sissy spacek). hallelujah!
+renee zellweger, chicago. like nicole, this will be her second consecutive nod here. deserving? yes. chance to win? none.
+meryl streep, the hours. because she's meryl. she'll be just as happy with a supporting trophy (see below).
+salma hayek, frida. very admired for making and giving such a fine perf in a film which left many wanting. diane lane (in unfaithful) is this year's naomi watts - a couple of big crix awards, but not enough steam to go the distance.
best supporting actor: getting tired of these races continually coming down to the fifth slot yet?
+chris cooper, adaptation. it's his. yeah, he's good. but this should go to
+dennis quaid, far from heaven. his perf reveals new depths in his acting, which appears to be improving with age, like a good wine. so much in this perf was understated with such beauty that I'll be elated beyond words if he wins. but he won't.
+ed harris, the hours. oscar fave, plays dying man with aids. need I go on?
+paul newman, the road to perdition. because he's paul newman. as much of a chance to win as I have.
+john c. reilly, chicago. chris walken (catch me if you can) is in too lightweight of a pic. alfred molina (frida) is in too disliked of a pic. and reilly's this year's jim broadbent, supporting in three likely nominees (hours and gony as well). I say "mr. cellophane" puts him over the top, by a hair.
best supporting actress: the chicago effect.
+meryl streep, adaptation. with her nod here, and/or in lead, meryl breaks kate hepburn's record for nominations (currently at 12). she likely wins this, giving adaptation a supporting sweep
+catherine zeta-jones, chicago. I'm still mad that she wasn't nommed for traffic two years ago, but she obviously stole every scene she was in in chicago, and still has a shot - the only one - to upset streep.
+kathy bates, about schmidt. great perf, buzz dying save for nude scene, could be the dark horse, but don't bet on it.
+julianne moore, the hours. the last time two women were double-nommed? '93. ten years later, expect it again.
+queen latifah, chicago. she's been steadily generating great buzz for a truly supporting perf. the sag nod puts her over. would love to see patricia clarkson slide in for far from heaven, but I don't expect it.
you know I'll blog the actual nods tomorrow, right? right.
# posted by Thomas : 3:00 PM
