Sunday, March 16, 2003
First things first: as always, espn.com is the place to go for March Madness coverage. Their NCAA tournament page is up.
I think the selection committee's one major gaffe was taking Auburn over Boston College. Apart from that, sure, I could quibble with some seedings (Texas and Oklahoma, but not Kansas, as #1 seeds?) - and will quibble with them using location as a factor pitting Kentucky and Arizona, easily the best two teams heading into the Dance, in a potential national semifinal - but by and large, I think the committee did very well this year. [As for the argument for/against Alabama, who I didn't think would get in, I'll say this: everyone was adamant that Gonzaga should get an at-large bid due to their mightily impressive non-conference schedule (which included losses to Kentucky, Georgia, Indiana, and Stanford). Well, you live by the sword... 'Bama played the #1-ranked schedule this season. So even at 19-11 and with a sub-.500 SEC record, I can see why they're in.]
Every year, I do what I call a "gut reaction" bracket" on Selection Sunday night. Some of these picks will change before noon (EST) on Thursday, but this is what I feel right now, knowing what I know (and don't). [Note: this isn't all-inclusive; if I skip a game, assume the higher seed wins it.]
In the Midwest, obviously Kentucky's the team to beat. Hell, in the whole damn thing. They'll roll over IUPUI and Oregon in their first two games. But in Minneapolis, I say they'll meet this year's Cinderella, #12 seed Weber State. These Wildcats have won 17 in a row and are one of only three teams this year in D-I to run the table in their conference (the others being Pennsylvania and - oh, hi! - the 'Cats of Kentucky). Wisconsin's a soft #5, and Dayton's a softer #4 than you think. In the bottom half of the Midwest bracket is the hardest game to pick in the opening round: Missouri vs. Southern Illinois. Quinn Snyder knows how to get his boys to peak at just the right time, and their run in the Big 12 tournament was gorgeous. But SIU's been here before, too - both were Sweet 16 teams last year. Mizzou advances in a tight one, going on to face (and beat) Patriot League champ Holy Cross, one of the most underrated teams in the nation, who I think'll topple a shocked Marquette. Indiana-Alabama is a fascinating matchup, and not just because Mike Davis was an assistant with 'Bama before moving north. The Crimson Tide have all but collapsed since they received the #1 AP ranking two days before 2003 began. I don't see that changing; IU's a tournament-tested team (remember last year?) and could conceivably get crimson (and cream)-hot and go on another tear. I don't think they will, but they'll advance to the second round and white-hot Pittsburgh. I love this team, I love Brevin Knight, and they should've had the #1 seed in the East. As it is, they'll have to make do with an Elite Eight appearance before falling to Kentucky.
How jubilant must Texas be right about now? Not only do they get a #1, but win two games and they get to play the in San Antonio for the South regional. That'll be the difference. Yes, T.J. Ford is a mack daddy, but place them somewhere else and I'd likely have them losing to Jim Calhoun's fabulous Connecticut squad. [With LSU coming off their win over Florida and close game with Kentucky in the SEC tournament, I anticipate they'll take care of business in the first round - which unfortunately means taking care of my Purdue Boilermakers, a #9 who probably deserve no better.]
STOP PRESS! This just in, via email from my best bud Stumpy:
[Andy] Katz just said the committee fucked up and put BYU in a regional that, if they advance to the elite eight, would be played on a Sunday. That's a Mormon no-no. They're looking at switching them with Weber State, meaning BYU would play Wisconsin and Weber State would play Connecticut. Do you think Weber State would agree to that? Which team would you rather play? [I think that fucks Weber State - UConn's a Sweet 16 team right now, period. BYU's one-and-done, period.]
Katz also said that the NCAA got confused by the pod system (not sure of his source) when they put Kentucky in the Midwest. He said something about how Nashville would normally feed into the South (old school, y'all) and that would put them on the opposite side of 'Zona. Not sure how they can get confused...they placed the pods in the regionals themselves. [I'm rolling my eyes.]
In light of this new info, I'm temporarily suspending the rest of my predix until it's all sorted out. More tomorrow as soon as I'm able, y'all.
I think the selection committee's one major gaffe was taking Auburn over Boston College. Apart from that, sure, I could quibble with some seedings (Texas and Oklahoma, but not Kansas, as #1 seeds?) - and will quibble with them using location as a factor pitting Kentucky and Arizona, easily the best two teams heading into the Dance, in a potential national semifinal - but by and large, I think the committee did very well this year. [As for the argument for/against Alabama, who I didn't think would get in, I'll say this: everyone was adamant that Gonzaga should get an at-large bid due to their mightily impressive non-conference schedule (which included losses to Kentucky, Georgia, Indiana, and Stanford). Well, you live by the sword... 'Bama played the #1-ranked schedule this season. So even at 19-11 and with a sub-.500 SEC record, I can see why they're in.]
Every year, I do what I call a "gut reaction" bracket" on Selection Sunday night. Some of these picks will change before noon (EST) on Thursday, but this is what I feel right now, knowing what I know (and don't). [Note: this isn't all-inclusive; if I skip a game, assume the higher seed wins it.]
In the Midwest, obviously Kentucky's the team to beat. Hell, in the whole damn thing. They'll roll over IUPUI and Oregon in their first two games. But in Minneapolis, I say they'll meet this year's Cinderella, #12 seed Weber State. These Wildcats have won 17 in a row and are one of only three teams this year in D-I to run the table in their conference (the others being Pennsylvania and - oh, hi! - the 'Cats of Kentucky). Wisconsin's a soft #5, and Dayton's a softer #4 than you think. In the bottom half of the Midwest bracket is the hardest game to pick in the opening round: Missouri vs. Southern Illinois. Quinn Snyder knows how to get his boys to peak at just the right time, and their run in the Big 12 tournament was gorgeous. But SIU's been here before, too - both were Sweet 16 teams last year. Mizzou advances in a tight one, going on to face (and beat) Patriot League champ Holy Cross, one of the most underrated teams in the nation, who I think'll topple a shocked Marquette. Indiana-Alabama is a fascinating matchup, and not just because Mike Davis was an assistant with 'Bama before moving north. The Crimson Tide have all but collapsed since they received the #1 AP ranking two days before 2003 began. I don't see that changing; IU's a tournament-tested team (remember last year?) and could conceivably get crimson (and cream)-hot and go on another tear. I don't think they will, but they'll advance to the second round and white-hot Pittsburgh. I love this team, I love Brevin Knight, and they should've had the #1 seed in the East. As it is, they'll have to make do with an Elite Eight appearance before falling to Kentucky.
How jubilant must Texas be right about now? Not only do they get a #1, but win two games and they get to play the in San Antonio for the South regional. That'll be the difference. Yes, T.J. Ford is a mack daddy, but place them somewhere else and I'd likely have them losing to Jim Calhoun's fabulous Connecticut squad. [With LSU coming off their win over Florida and close game with Kentucky in the SEC tournament, I anticipate they'll take care of business in the first round - which unfortunately means taking care of my Purdue Boilermakers, a #9 who probably deserve no better.]
STOP PRESS! This just in, via email from my best bud Stumpy:
[Andy] Katz just said the committee fucked up and put BYU in a regional that, if they advance to the elite eight, would be played on a Sunday. That's a Mormon no-no. They're looking at switching them with Weber State, meaning BYU would play Wisconsin and Weber State would play Connecticut. Do you think Weber State would agree to that? Which team would you rather play? [I think that fucks Weber State - UConn's a Sweet 16 team right now, period. BYU's one-and-done, period.]
Katz also said that the NCAA got confused by the pod system (not sure of his source) when they put Kentucky in the Midwest. He said something about how Nashville would normally feed into the South (old school, y'all) and that would put them on the opposite side of 'Zona. Not sure how they can get confused...they placed the pods in the regionals themselves. [I'm rolling my eyes.]
In light of this new info, I'm temporarily suspending the rest of my predix until it's all sorted out. More tomorrow as soon as I'm able, y'all.
# posted by Thomas : 8:11 PM
